What to Expect in the Second Half of 2025
As we enter the second half of 2025, the Canadian housing market continues to shift in response to economic forces, policy adjustments, and evolving consumer behavior. Homebuyers and mortgage clients in cities like Calgary and Edmonton are asking the same questions: Will prices continue to rise? Are interest rates coming down? Is now a good time to buy or renew?
This article breaks down what is happening in the Canadian real estate market right now, what to expect in Alberta specifically, and how you can prepare financially as a buyer, seller, or mortgage holder.
Current Market Overview (As of June 2025)
Canada’s housing market began 2025 with strong momentum. A combination of low housing supply, population growth from immigration, and ongoing interest rate pressures has made affordability a top concern across most provinces.
- The national average home price increased by approximately 4.3 percent year-over-year.
- The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate steady since January 2025, but no major cuts are expected until Q4.
- Inventory remains low in many major markets, including Calgary and Edmonton, which is keeping prices firm despite reduced sales activity in some areas.
Calgary and Edmonton: Regional Housing Insights
Calgary Housing Market
Calgary remains one of Canada’s most resilient real estate markets in 2025. Demand for detached homes and townhouses continues to rise due to interprovincial migration and affordability compared to Vancouver or Toronto.
Key trends in Calgary:
- Average home prices increased by roughly 6 percent year-over-year.
- The market is shifting from a seller’s market to more of a balanced environment, giving buyers slightly more negotiation room.
- New construction is struggling to keep pace with demand, keeping inventory tight.
Edmonton Housing Market
Edmonton’s market shows a slower but stable growth pattern. The city remains attractive to first-time buyers and investors due to lower entry prices.
Key trends in Edmonton:
- Prices have increased approximately 3 percent year-over-year.
- More buyers are opting for condos and attached homes due to price sensitivity and rising utility costs.
- Rental demand remains strong, fueling interest in investment properties.
What to Expect in Q3 and Q4 of 2025
Here is what industry professionals and economists are forecasting for the second half of the year:
- Stable but Elevated Interest Rates
The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain current rates through most of Q3. A small rate cut may occur in late Q4 if inflation trends downward. This means:
- Variable mortgage holders may not see relief until late in the year.
- Fixed-rate mortgages will remain popular for clients seeking stability.
- Gradual Price Growth
While some overheated markets may plateau, Calgary and Edmonton are expected to continue moderate growth, driven by relative affordability and job market strength.
- Calgary home prices may grow another 2 to 3 percent by year-end.
- Edmonton could see gains in the 1 to 2 percent range, with higher performance in suburban and entry-level sectors.
- Government Policy Impact
New housing supply programs, such as the federal Housing Accelerator Fund, are expected to influence medium-term construction. However, their impact on 2025 prices will be limited. Provincial incentives, especially for first-time buyers in Alberta, may play a larger role in driving demand.
What This Means for Buyers and Homeowners
For First-Time Buyers
- Get pre-approved early and understand your maximum budget under today’s stress test.
- Expect longer closing timelines and more competition for detached homes in Calgary and surrounding areas.
For Mortgage Renewals
- If your mortgage is renewing in 2025, expect a higher rate than your original term.
- Speak with a licensed Alberta mortgage broker to explore fixed vs variable strategies and refinancing options.
For Investors
- Alberta remains one of the top provinces for positive cash flow rental properties.
- Look for opportunities in secondary markets around Edmonton and Calgary where growth is accelerating.
Final Thoughts: Stay Informed and Ready
The second half of 2025 will not bring dramatic changes to the Canadian housing market, but there are important shifts happening under the surface. Buyers and mortgage holders in Calgary and Edmonton will need to stay informed, flexible, and financially prepared.
Have questions about buying, renewing, or investing this year? Our team at Canadian Mortgage Professionals is here to help you navigate every step.
